Is Osama Dead?

It’s now pretty clear that Pakistan has been playing a double game. It’s likely that U.S. intelligence knew this. Pakistan represents the pivot between East and West. It’s always solicited money from both sides. If you notice, the major tensions in the world right now are all happening to the west of Pakistan right now. China views Pakistan as a dam to keep the poisoned sectarian waters flowing east.

The bin Laden killing has very little to do with all this. For one thing, ‘getting bin Laden’ was only important to America – especially to Obama who needs it as a reelection prop. The confusion disseminated by the WH in the aftermath of the assassination points to something that the WH does not want the American public to know. It was orchestrated primarily to make America’s current president look good. Indications now are that Obama had help. (1) It is no longer credible that Pakistan was unaware; and (2) given Pakistan’s close ties with China, we can assume that China knew as well.

As far as both Pakistan and China are concerned, neither one particularly cared whether bin Laden lived or died. What it finally took was a request from the WH to make it happen and any incentives that the Obama administration was willing to provide.

My own pet theory is that Osama died years ago in some cave of kidney failure; that this too was known. And that the raid was staged. This would explain some of the scrambling for a narrative we are witnessing. What happens next will depend on the likely dead-cat-bounce in Obama’s poll numbers.

Pakistan and China have now got theirs as well. Obama will declare “mission accomplished” and withdraw his troops from Afghanistan, leaving the field wide open for them. Perhaps this is why we have been so reluctant to destroy the poppy fields, the only viable industry in the country. China will use Pakistan as a proxy to restore tranquility to the region. The Saudis will help. With America now completely out of the picture, the next move is Iran’s.

Is Osama dead? Probably. When did he die? Unknown.

Schoolyard Games (and Accidents)

Even more interesting to me than what’s happening at the moment is to watch the tectonic political plates of world alliances shifting. The heavy dude jumped off the see-saw, which sent all the other kids flying. Now the heavy dude is scrambling to get back on, but he’s hurt and someone’s taken him to the nurse’s office. She determines that the heavy dude is essentially out for the count; that there’s something other than just scratches, bumps and bruises ailing him. He may be insane.

Meanwhile, all the other kids are still crawling around on the ground. Some had their glasses knocked off. Now they’re trying to find each other. The see-saw has been abandoned. A new game must be found; new teams chosen. Turkey to Iran. Bahrain to the Saudis. Israel is the kid that no one will pick.

Germany to the Russians. The French want to go it alone. Pakistan to China. Brazil to Venezuela. India, alone. May have to form leagues with an eye towards finals. The fat kid still in rehab. Can no longer be counted on to do anything.

As the world turns: uncertainty and confusion. Posturing. Pawns are bleeding. Scramble, scramble. Where it ends up, nobody knows. ... and where the hell are the teachers? Union meetings, no doubt.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

Holding the Bag

What we are witnessing on every front is quite remarkable. It’s tough to keep up with it all and even tougher to make sense of it. Whatever happens in Libya, we now own it. There’s one school of thought that thinks it’s already too late; that the civil war there is already over; that Kaddafi has won; that to interfere at this late date will only serve to forestall the inevitable.

So why did we do it? My guess is we were stung by the Saudi’s sending troops into Bahrain without telling us. To make up for it, we decided we must do something to show that we’re still relevant. (Democrats are always asking themselves if they’re relevant.) Never mind; when push comes to shove, our allies can be expected to excuse themselves to go to the bathroom. Many in our Congress know this; that we’ll be left holding the bag. They also know that we’ve had no time to prepare. It took Bush many months to launch an invasion into Iraq. I remember, even the weather became a factor. It pays to remember that initially Bush was hugely successful. Our troops hardly had to fire a shot. We could hardly believe our luck when our objective was met in record time.

But we just couldn’t leave it at that. We just had to embark on ‘nation building’, changing hearts and minds and all such rot. And even this would have succeeded if we hadn’t politicized it here at home. Democrats wanted Bush discredited at all costs. They were quite willing to gamble away all just to see it happen. As such, they happily undermined America’s effectiveness and prestige. They destroyed the levee known by its age old dictum that ‘politics stops at the water’s edge’, inviting a flood of recrimination and abuse from abroad. It worked and we lost our way.

What a price we’ve had to pay!!! Now we truly are irrelevant. Nobody takes us seriously anymore. Even the guy at the gas station on the corner can hardly stand to look at us. We have shamed ourselves in the eyes of the world, hastening our own demise to no purpose.

I say this in response to John Batchelor’s words last night when commenting on the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit vendor and likening it to the recent self-immolation of a Tibetan monk. These were brave and honorable deeds that will go down in history as important turning points. When a rich and powerful country does the same, however, it is seen as utter folly.

What exactly is our goal in Libya? When will we know we have won? What exactly will we have won? And should we lose, and Kaddafi stays in power?

It has been my contention from the start that Obama is out to wreck every one of our key institutions. Already he’s done a fair job of it. The only thing remaining is the military.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

America Is No Longer A Player

Apparently it takes two years to get the measure of a man. Equally apparent is that it takes some Americans even longer.

Last night’s show is one to be bookmarked. It dealt primarily with the foreign policy failures of the Obama administration, especially as pertains to the Middle East. On the eve of the president’s trip to Brazil, we can now look forward to a fresh set of policy embarrassments looming in South America. This is one of the reasons Hillary Clinton continues to distance herself from this administration.

Everything about the discussions last night was pretty much on target. And it is not something that will ever be reported in the NYT and in other liberal mainstream media outlets. Obama is their baby, after all. A mother will always stand up for her child.

But neither Batchelor or Hoenlein (or any of their guests) ever got down to actually pulling the trigger. Triangulation no longer works. Only facts are relevant. By parting ways with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel among others, the U.S. has planted itself firmly in Iran’s twelver camp. This did not just happen because of inattention, ignorance, or character flaws. It is deliberate. Anyone might be relieved to see our president as dupe and bumbler-in chief. It might even be so. In any case, Obama has been the public face of events that have occurred since he has been in office. It is he who must be held to account. No doubt, others much smarter than Obama are pulling his strings.

On the home front it’s the same story. Obama’s presidency has been a disaster anywhere you look.

One hopeful sign (if you can call it that): I see China inching closer to the breach. As I have predicted previously, Israel will survive. Iran will not. Half ‘evil’ will always win out over 100% ‘evil’. America is no longer a player.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

Pretty Pink Ribbons

Conservative media is awash this morning - all asking the same question, “Where in the world is Barack Hussein Obama?” It’s as if they all received the same memo overnight; sent out by the Koch brothers, no doubt. And indeed, the question is quite valid. It seems that the Saudis have already decided that their partner in the West is and has been MIA for far too long; that it’s high time they begin taking things into their own hands. Israel is rapidly coming to the same conclusion. Turkey, Brazil and others have already fled; while still others are scrambling to find new, more reliable partners. Russia and China see untold new opportunities.

The only ones stuck in the pretense of American leadership is us. Our hands appear to be tied by convention. It’s not that we’re not aware. In fact, it becomes clearer by the day; that we’ve have jettisoned our rudder, our engines and our sails; that we are now drifting and (perhaps) worse: being blown about aimlessly by outside currents and upheaval. And that’s the best case scenario (not yet time to throw the horses overboard). The worst being, that it’s deliberate and done from the inside with a brick on the gas pedal.

This now should become critical to our calculations. If our leadership is indeed just taking a hands-off approach, then we might just eke out another year and a half. Even a clock left unwound is right at least twice a day. If, on the other hand, it’s being done deliberately, then all bets are off. We’re practically guaranteed never to catch a break. By 2012, we’ll have fallen so far; it’ll be moot to even have elections.

While there are now a few new faces in Congress who are raising concerns; at the same time, they’re already throwing up their hands. They find the institution has been eviscerated and reduced to the level of straw man. Our Republican leadership seems quite content to assume this role and appears eager to stand by and watch. The strategy, as far as I can make out, appears to center on handing the administration enough rope.

It won’t work. By the time 2012 rolls around, there just might not be much of anything left to tie up in pretty pink ribbons.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

Raise High the Roof-Beam, Carpenters

The only thing that the Left and the Right actually agree on is that growth alone will fix the economy. From there on, however, their approaches differ. Whereas the Left favors opening wide the back doors of the armored truck and heaving fistfuls of dollars out into the street, the Right says it’s time to keep the trucks locked up at the depot. This fundamental difference also colors our approach to foreign policy. As liberals are presently in charge of nearly everything, consider the following likely conversation between our State Department and the PA regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:

U.S. State Department: “We want you to reach a peace agreement with Israel during this term of the Obama administration. What would it take for you to accomplish this?”

PA: “Impossible. We do not recognize the existence of the Jewish State.”

U.S.: “We will give you money - as much as you want. And we will give you more afterwards to help make you into the most prosperous nation on earth.”

PA: “We will take your money, but we will only buy guns and knives so we can slit the throats of the Israeli Jews.”

U.S.: “So you see, we’re making progress. You now recognize that there actually are Israeli Jews. We will give you an initial down payment and much more after you agree to come back to the table for further negotiations.”
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Or, imagine our conversation with the King of Saudi Arabia:

U.S.: “We will give you money so that you will keep the oil flowing to Europe and America.”

SA: “We have more than enough money. Money means nothing to us. Another Rolls Royce or two will not make a difference. We already have plenty. These only serve to remind us that we are nothing. We do not produce Rolls Royces. It does not improve our self-esteem to drive them. It is you who should feel proud for having produced what is arguably the finest land vehicle the world has ever known. We, on the other hand, simply use them as we would toilet paper.

“We produce nothing. We have no skills, no imagination - only resources. It is these resources - our resources - with which you spin your magic: building great industries and communication networks, creating timeless art and philosophies, etc. We simply allow you to pump oil out of our wells. Although you pay us handsomely, it’s only money, which is essentially worthless to us because we do nothing to earn it.”

U.S.: “But we’re prepared to pay you even more.”

SA: “Save it. It will help neither us nor you. You have done more than enough to inflict us with a fatal case of ‘Dutch disease’ (as defined by your own economists). The only way we will be helped is for us to destroy you. Because every day you continue to exist on this, our shared, planet reminds us of our humiliation before God.

“We have therefore decided to pronounce everything you do as evil. And thus we have discovered our power over you. We are now in the position to drain the very blood from your veins. And only this (by the grace of Allah) will restore our self-esteem and bring us back to some semblance of life. In other words, we must kill you.”

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

No More Sequels

It’s easy to predict this one - to run it all the way out to its conclusion. It’s like we’re all at the movies, watching a James Bond thriller. It’s been cat and mouse all the way. The final scene is approaching. Bond has located the farm house where the beautiful hostage is kept. He creeps stealthily towards it. He has already poisoned the dog. He reaches the porch. The floorboard creaks. He stops. All remains quiet.

The door is unlocked. Standing aside of the frame, he pushes it open. It creaks on its hinges. A car passes along the road. Bond freezes. All else remains quiet.

Meanwhile, the villain lurks in the shadows inside the house with his hand over the mouth of the beautiful hostage. He watches Bond’s movements on a monitor.

Though cautious, Bond thinks he’s in the clear. He had checked the barn earlier. There were no cars there. Bond draws his gun before bursting into the house.

Involuntarily, we put a hand over our mouths. We want to scream at the screen, “Watch out!!!”

Why is the media suddenly becoming so cagy about Egypt? Saying anything but the obvious is treated as virtual blasphemy. No speculation endues. History starts with Obama, even as his own history remains incomplete. All we need to know is that before Obama, all history led to ruin. The U.S., the most powerful nation on earth, was in charge and everyone else had to dance to its tune - and life on the planet was a misery to most.

Perhaps it’s not accident that Obama started his presidency with what was billed as a major speech in Cairo. I just re-read it. It struck me as childish - almost simple-minded. I’m sure nobody there bought it. They might even have been offended by its condescending tone.

Platitudes don’t translate easily to bread. Not much there by way of loaves and fish. Certainly not much mention of political strategy which, taking into account that America was speaking, was a lie of omission. Just so much American soma, Coca-Cola, change, and all the rest. Nobody believed it.

Except, it wasn’t America speaking. The ‘change‘, that would involve them, had actually come from America . And though nobody knew it yet, much of what Obama said was true - a reflection of the new America, the one in bed with jihad and the Muslim Brotherhood. Nobody foresaw that Egypt would become the crucible. Except, Obama knew.

Now more of us know because we can see what‘s happening. We see the outline of what’s coming - what’s already here. Yemen and Jordan bookend Saudi Arabia. The Suez Canal remains a vital shipping lane. Oil remains vital to functioning of the West. Tehran claims armies and allies. Israel cries foul. There will be no more sequels.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

Tunisia: From the Frying Pan Into the Fire

I don’t claim to know the particulars, but the pattern seems set: corrupt governance the world over, often supported by the West (particularly the United States) and kept in place for its own geopolitical game-board advantage; the locals - as always, getting the shaft - are unhappy. They seek alternatives. The alternative in that part of the world is invariably state(Iran)-sponsored Islam. (Note: the words “state” and “(any)religion” used in the same sentence always amounts to an oxymoron.)

Islam offers the illusion of escape from tyranny while imposing its own tyranny, but the people do not yet know it. They embrace the notion of a caliphate which promises liberation from outside influence. In a single stroke, they think all their ‘enemies’ will now be humbled - and, for now, that is enough to rally in support.

Home-grown tyranny is always preferable because its home-grown.

Why all this now? Because the U.S. under the leadership of Barack Hussein Obama has made it clear that America will no longer fight to preserve old ways; that, frankly, it no longer cares who is in charge or what happens. Algiers, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon are all on the chopping block, along with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Turkey has already decided to place its bet with the strong horse. You bet “Israel is watching closely”. She will soon find herself surrounded by an ever-rising (green) tide. She watches in despair as her ship takes on water: Islamic fervor from without; liberalism from within, while Gibraltar America fades in the distance.

As I continue to say, America’s break with the past - brought to the fore in its last presidential election - will continue to reverberate around the globe. No one will be spared. No one can anticipate where the chips will end up when it’s over. No one is prepared. All are in deep denial. Only China is trying. You’ve got to give them credit.

The irony is that America will be blamed for whatever happens. Despite our considerable resources, we seem to have adopted a deliberate stance of not caring - primarily about ourselves.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

Only Value Will Have Value

Wonderful explanation of how all of it intersects in Jerusalem and how any possible resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - whether in blood or peace - will have wider repercussions throughout much of the world. Nice to know that Netanyahu - unlike Washington and Riyadh - is resisting the easy, shameful solutions. In the end, character always wins out.

There may be a timetable to this (peace talk) farce that everyone appears to be perpetuating so desperately at this particular time. Yes, there's the succession struggle within the House of Al-Saud. But that's a factor in every house and cannot be considered as unusually significant. The startlingly new element is the collapse of the dollar and that of financial paper in general. It means that the House of Al-Saud will see itself stripped of influence. All the money they have amassed over the years is about to be unmasked to show that nothing of value was ever done with it. The currencies themselves - surely stored in large, elaborate vaults - might just as well be stored in incinerators.

In the new world order, only value will have 'value'. Mere money in the hands of the undeserving will turn to sand. That time is near. It will happen before Obama's first term ends. It will unleash a maelstrom, sweeping aside all the corrupt and broken pieces. There will also be much collateral damage. Only 'value' will survive - and 'character'. The Saudis, as well as most of the rest of the Middle East, are not particularly strong on either point.