by B.RAMAN
China has gone all the way with Pakistan in the difficult situation being faced by Pakistan in the aftermath of the Abbottabad raid by some U.S. naval commandos on May 2, which led to the death of Osama bin Laden.
2. This became apparent during the just concluded (May 20,2011) four-day visit of Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani to China during which he met, among others, President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. The visit had been fixed weeks before the Abbottabad raid to mark the high-profile observance of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, but as it took place a few days after the raid, Pakistan ’s much-doubted sincerity in fighting terrorism became the defining and dominating theme of the visit.
3. Even before Gilani’s departure for China , the Chinese authorities had made it clear in no uncertain terms on many occasions that they did not share the skepticism being expressed in the U.S. regarding the sincerity of Pakistan in the so-called war against terrorism. The Chinese also refrained from subscribing to the view that to have been able to live undetected for over five years at Abbottabad, OBL must have had some local support from official circles in Pakistan . They had no hesitation in endorsing the claims made by Pakistan that its security forces had made huge sacrifices in the war against terrorism.
4. These points were reiterated with even greater force by the Chinese during their interactions with Gilani after his arrival in China . It was apparent that the Chinese leaders have had no difficulty in accepting the claims of Pakistan that it was taken by surprise by OBL being found in Abbottabad. While refraining from any comments that could have been misinterpreted as criticism of the unilateral U.S. raid to kill OBL, the Chinese underlined their own preference for joint operations with Pakistan in dealing with the Uighur dissidents operating on both sides of Pakistan’s border with the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang. The Chinese also refrained from any remarks that could be interpreted as an attempt to capitalize on the post-Abbottabad anti-U.S. sentiments in Pakistan to drive a wedge between Pakistan and the U.S. Chinese analysts stressed the importance of continuing Pakistani counter-terrorism co-operation with the U.S. on the one side and with China on the other.
5. During his meeting with Gilani, Hu promised to increase cooperation with Pakistan on fighting terrorism and cross-border crimes in a bid to create a sound security environment for the economic and social development of both countries. Hu expressed his appreciation of Pakistan ’s contribution in the fight against terrorism, and said China would promote security dialogue and coordination with Pakistan. He said China would join Pakistan in the fight against drug trafficking, cross-border crimes and the "three evil forces"--terrorism, extremism and splittism.
6. Pakistani journalists who had accompanied Gilani have claimed that during his meeting with Gilani, Wen said that Pakistan had made great sacrifices in the global war against terrorism and urged the international community to understand and support Pakistan's efforts to maintain domestic stability and advance the economic and social development. They also quoted Wen as telling Gilani that "Pakistan's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected," and as disclosing that China had asked the U.S. to respect Pakistan ’s sovereignty, understand its problems, address its concerns and acknowledge the sacrifices rendered by it in the war against terror. China was reported to have made this point to the U.S. during a recent strategic dialogue between the two countries in Washington DC.
7. The strong Chinese support for Pakistan on the counter-terrorism issue was also underlined in the joint statement ussued by the two countries at the end of the visit on May 20. The statement inter alia said: “China believes that Pakistan ’s efforts for promoting peace and stability in South Asia need to be recognised and supported. The Chinese side recognised the tremendous efforts and great sacrifice that Pakistan has made in fighting terrorism and reiterated its respect and support for Pakistan ’s efforts to advance its counter-terrorism strategy and safeguard its security.”
8. In a commentary on the visit carried on May 18, the Party-controlled “People’s Daily” said: “Due to special causes in various aspects, such as historical and tribal influences, the 'three forces' headed by the 'East Turkistan Islamic Movement' have existed for a long time in the tribal areas at the Pakistani-Afghan border. However, China has always respected Pakistan 's sovereignty when combating the 'three forces' jointly with Pakistan and understands Pakistan's enormous sacrifices and significant contributions in the forefront of the international fight against terrorism. Pakistan has also always supported China 's sovereignty and territorial integrity in major issues related to the Taiwan region, Tibet Autonomous Region and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.”
9. In a commentary published on May 20 in the Government-controlled “China Daily”, Han Hua, associate professor at Peking University's School of International Studies, said: “Instead of creating a gulf in relations, the death of bin Laden has offered a chance to Pakistan, the U.S. and China to work together to combat terrorism. After all, the three countries' anti-terrorism mission is still very much on.”
10. Thus, the following points relating to the Chinese position have come out loud and clear from the visit:
- China welcomes the death of OBL as a result of the U.S. raid.
- Despite the success of the raid which was organized unilaterally by the U.S., it stresses the importance of respecting Pakistan ’s sovereignty.
- Pakistan’s failure to detect the presence of OBL at Abbottabad does not detract from the sacrifices made by it in the war against terrorism. These sacrifices have to be recognized.
- China has no intention to capitalize on the U.S. misgivings about Pakistan to wean Pakistan away from the U.S.
- Continuing counter-terrorism co-operation between Pakistan and the U.S. would benefit the war against global terrorism which continues despite OBL’s death.
11. Though India has not figured in any of the statements and reports emanating from China on Gilani’s visit, reading between the lines one could infer that Pakistan ’s concerns over its ability to prevent any Indian air intrusions into Pakistan must have figured in the discussions. The reported Chinese agreement to expedite the supply of 50 JF-17 Thunder aircraft to the Pakistan Air Force during the next six months strengthens this inference.
12. The “Daily Times” of Lahore has commented on this as follows in its report: “According to official sources, these aircraft will be equipped with sophisticated avionics. Not only will the aircraft be handed over within weeks, China will also foot the bill initially. Although Pakistan and China have been jointly developing this multirole combat aircraft in the past, in the aftermath of the U.S. operation in Abbottabad, serious questions have been raised about Pakistan ’s defence capabilities. According to a strategic expert, the speedy delivery of 50 pieces of this aircraft, originally to be done over two years, is expected to allay apprehensions of not only the Pakistani public but will also send a message to the world that Pakistan ’s defence is not weak. It might be remembered that not only has the Indian military chief speculated on the possibility of a U.S.-style strike from the Indian side to take out jihadi outfits in Pakistan, there has been escalation on the Pakistan-India border near Sialkot recently. Also, observers believe that in a situation when the speculations are rife that Pakistan may not be able to resist another U.S. attack inside its territory if it so decides, this agreement will send a clear message to the world on which side China stands.” (22-5-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
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My comment: This analysis reflects an understanding (by the Chinese) that Pakistan is wont to play both sides; that Pakistan remains vulnerable to both China and the U.S.; that China’s strategic involvement in Pakistan is not driven by sentiment alone. As such, China’s involvement seeks to focus on practical goals; specifically, mitigating the threat of Islamic terrorism within its own sphere.
Furthermore, it employs the now failed Bush policy of encircling the perceived enemy (Iran) by establishing useful bases on either side of it (Iraq and Afghanistan); and now, figuring in China’s calculations: India (in the middle) with Pakistan and China surrounding it.
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Category Error: Attacking Norway for Pearl Harbor
Bahukutumbi Raman, in a recent dispatch labeled “PAK ARMY & ISI: DANGEROUS MIX OF HUMILIATION & DESPERATION”, warns that Pakistan may be planning to redeem itself by orchestrating a successful strike against India, especially in the contentious Kashmir region.
No doubt, Pakistan’s citizens are seriously concerned about the ability of their government and armed forces to protect them. No doubt there has been talk on the streets of intelligence failure at best or illicit collusion with the Americans at worst.
Yet, all this follows a familiar pattern. Most military incursions into sovereign territory for any reason are done in stealth. The inevitable questions and accusations follow. Did Roosevelt know about Pearl Harbor in advance? Did Bush know about 9/11? And in her column in yesterday’s Jerusalem Post, Caroline Glick accuses Ehud Barak, Israel’s Defense Minister of failing to anticipate trouble along the country’s Syrian border on Nakba Day.
The truth is, no government can promise ironclad security to its citizens. A successful strategy, however, must involve the threat of consequences for anyone intending such a move. If Pakistan were to attack India in the wake of its so-called ‘humiliation’, such redemption would be short lived. For one thing, India had nothing to do with the bin Laden raid.
President Bush underwent a hell of tortures for his decision to attack Iraq in the wake of 9/11. His opponents constantly labeled it as “the wrong war”. In the end, rightly or wrongly, it proved to be his undoing.
My own sense of Pakistan’s leadership is that it is too mature to attack India as a direct consequence of the U.S. bin Laden raid. It has far better options: Turning its focus away from Washington to cooperating more with China is one. If India is attacked, it will not be because of anything that happened in Abbottabad.
I wish I had a similar degree of confidence in America’s foreign policy.
Monday, May 16, 2011
View from India: ALL EYES ON GILANI’S VISIT TO CHINA
by B.RAMAN
All eyes in Pakistan are on the four-day visit to China from May 17, 2011, by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani. The dates of the visit were finalized some weeks ago to enable him to participate in the year-long observance of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. It has since acquired special significance in the eyes of Pakistani analysts as it is taking place at a time when Pakistan has come under severe criticism in the U.S. for failing to detect the presence of Osama bin Laden for over five years at Abbottabad, the cradle of the Pakistan Army, where the Pakistan Military Academy is located. OBL was killed by helicopter-borne U.S. naval commandos on May 2.
2.According to Chinese sources, the documents and computer records seized by the raiding party at OBL’s residence do not appear to have yielded any evidence so far to indicate that Osama was in touch with any of the Pakistani agencies. However, the examination of the records and computer documents is still on. In the meanwhile, the Pakistani political leadership, at the urging of the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has kept the focus more on the security failure which enabled the U.S. naval commandos to raid OBL’s place without being detected by the Pakistan Air Force and the Army than on the intelligence failure that enabled OBL to live at Abbottabad for over five years.
3. The anger over the clandestine U.S. raid has been widespread in Pakistan and has led to demands for a re-examination of Pakistan ’s relations with the U.S. and of the intelligence and counter-terrorism co-operation between the intelligence agencies of the two countries. A resolution passed during an in camera session of the two Houses of the Pakistan Parliament on May 13 has also reportedly threatened to stop the flow of logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan from the Karachi port if the U.S. continued with the Drone (pilotless plane) strikes in the two Waziristans and carried out any more unilateral raids by its commandos in other parts of Pakistan.
4. According to reliable Pakistani sources, Gilani is expected to raise with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao two issues which were not originally on the agenda---namely, the possibility of an increase in Chinese economic assistance to enable Pakistan to resist the U.S. pressure and Chinese military assistance for the strengthening of the air defences near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Even though Pakistan Air Force officials have attributed the non-detection of the intrusion of the U.S. choppers to the USA ’s superior stealth technology, there is also a feeling that the air defences on the Afghan border were not as good as they are on the Indian border and hence there is a need to strengthen them.
5. In the present estranged atmosphere, the U.S. is unlikely to help Pakistan in this regard. The Pakistani sources say that Gilani is expected to request the Chinese for urgent assistance in this connection. Pakistani expectations of an enhanced Chinese role to enable Pakistan to reduce its dependence on the U.S. have put the Chinese in an embarrassing position. Though they would like to oblige Pakistan to the extent possible, they would not like to do anything which could come in the way of the fresh initiatives under way for improving China ’s military-military relationship with the U.S.
6. After a gap of seven years, Gen. Chen Bingde, the Chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is on a week-long visit to the U.S. from May 15. The Chinese would not like any jarring note in the military-military relations with the U.S. during Gen. Chen’s visit due to any special gesture shown by them to Pakistan. The Chinese are also keen that the U.S. Drone strikes should continue since some of the strikes in the past were directed at the training camps of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) in the Waziristans, which were also training Uighur jihadis from the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang province of China .
7. Since the May 2 Abbottabad raid, the Chinese have maintained a high level of oral support for Pakistan on the counter-terrorism issue, highlighting the sacrifices allegedly made by the Pakistani security forces in the fight against jihadi terrorism. At the same time, they have avoided any dramatic gestures of a concrete nature such as increasing significantly their economic assistance to Pakistan or giving additional military assistance.
8. While they may give some concrete assistance of a limited nature during Gilani’s visit, they are likely to advise Pakistan to cool it and not to let its relations with the U.S. and its counter-terrorism co-operation with the U.S. reach a breaking point. (16-5-11)
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(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
All eyes in Pakistan are on the four-day visit to China from May 17, 2011, by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani. The dates of the visit were finalized some weeks ago to enable him to participate in the year-long observance of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. It has since acquired special significance in the eyes of Pakistani analysts as it is taking place at a time when Pakistan has come under severe criticism in the U.S. for failing to detect the presence of Osama bin Laden for over five years at Abbottabad, the cradle of the Pakistan Army, where the Pakistan Military Academy is located. OBL was killed by helicopter-borne U.S. naval commandos on May 2.
2.According to Chinese sources, the documents and computer records seized by the raiding party at OBL’s residence do not appear to have yielded any evidence so far to indicate that Osama was in touch with any of the Pakistani agencies. However, the examination of the records and computer documents is still on. In the meanwhile, the Pakistani political leadership, at the urging of the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has kept the focus more on the security failure which enabled the U.S. naval commandos to raid OBL’s place without being detected by the Pakistan Air Force and the Army than on the intelligence failure that enabled OBL to live at Abbottabad for over five years.
3. The anger over the clandestine U.S. raid has been widespread in Pakistan and has led to demands for a re-examination of Pakistan ’s relations with the U.S. and of the intelligence and counter-terrorism co-operation between the intelligence agencies of the two countries. A resolution passed during an in camera session of the two Houses of the Pakistan Parliament on May 13 has also reportedly threatened to stop the flow of logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan from the Karachi port if the U.S. continued with the Drone (pilotless plane) strikes in the two Waziristans and carried out any more unilateral raids by its commandos in other parts of Pakistan.
4. According to reliable Pakistani sources, Gilani is expected to raise with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao two issues which were not originally on the agenda---namely, the possibility of an increase in Chinese economic assistance to enable Pakistan to resist the U.S. pressure and Chinese military assistance for the strengthening of the air defences near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Even though Pakistan Air Force officials have attributed the non-detection of the intrusion of the U.S. choppers to the USA ’s superior stealth technology, there is also a feeling that the air defences on the Afghan border were not as good as they are on the Indian border and hence there is a need to strengthen them.
5. In the present estranged atmosphere, the U.S. is unlikely to help Pakistan in this regard. The Pakistani sources say that Gilani is expected to request the Chinese for urgent assistance in this connection. Pakistani expectations of an enhanced Chinese role to enable Pakistan to reduce its dependence on the U.S. have put the Chinese in an embarrassing position. Though they would like to oblige Pakistan to the extent possible, they would not like to do anything which could come in the way of the fresh initiatives under way for improving China ’s military-military relationship with the U.S.
6. After a gap of seven years, Gen. Chen Bingde, the Chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is on a week-long visit to the U.S. from May 15. The Chinese would not like any jarring note in the military-military relations with the U.S. during Gen. Chen’s visit due to any special gesture shown by them to Pakistan. The Chinese are also keen that the U.S. Drone strikes should continue since some of the strikes in the past were directed at the training camps of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) in the Waziristans, which were also training Uighur jihadis from the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang province of China .
7. Since the May 2 Abbottabad raid, the Chinese have maintained a high level of oral support for Pakistan on the counter-terrorism issue, highlighting the sacrifices allegedly made by the Pakistani security forces in the fight against jihadi terrorism. At the same time, they have avoided any dramatic gestures of a concrete nature such as increasing significantly their economic assistance to Pakistan or giving additional military assistance.
8. While they may give some concrete assistance of a limited nature during Gilani’s visit, they are likely to advise Pakistan to cool it and not to let its relations with the U.S. and its counter-terrorism co-operation with the U.S. reach a breaking point. (16-5-11)
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(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Friday, May 13, 2011
Facebook Amen Corner
Just in case you haven’t noticed, Facebook has become the “Amen corner” of the net. People post things like pretty pictures of sunsets and say things like “Obama is great” and everyone who responds says something like, “What a pretty picture!” or, “What a pretty sunset!” Or, “Yes, he truly is.” And, “We’re so blessed to have George Soros guiding his every move.”
Now, if anyone should disagree with same sex marriages or abortions, for example; it’s better just to keep it to oneself. One’s comment will be promptly deleted, even if one counters with a reasoned argument.
This has happened to me several times. I could say all I want against Iran’s mullahs, but let me say one word about our sainted co-presidents (Soros-Obama) and puff, it’s gone.
I never put the writings I post here on Facebook, but others do. It’s hit or miss. I suspect they have some kind of machine that scouts for word clusters involving “Soros”, “Obama”, “Koelliker”, “fraud”, "treason”, “anti-American”… (you get the idea), and nixes it. Amazing what technology can do these days. And, from news reports I read, our government is getting more and more involved in cyberspace.
I’d imagine, if I were Iranian and blogging from Iran, I’d run into the same buzz saw (only the clusters are different). What’s in a name, anyway?
Alas, the world is getting smaller. We’ll soon be condemned to all doing (and thinking) the same things. In a way, I don’t blame the jihadis. They’re the last ones on earth who can claim to be free. At least they haven’t looked yet who has them by the tail while they’re slamming us around.
We accuse China of manipulating media; we accuse Iran. "Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?” (Matthew 7:3)
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
View from India: CAN PAKISTAN UNILATERALLY RENOUNCE U.S. ASSISTANCE?
by B.RAMAN
Can Pakistan unilaterally renounce U.S. assistance in protest against the violation of its sovereignty by the U.S. naval commandos who raided Osama bin Laden's house at Abbottabad on the night of May 1,2011, and killed him and as a mark of its indignation over the crescendo of U.S. allegations and suspicions regarding a possible complicity of the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in facilitating OBL's stay at Abbottabad for nearly five years?
2. According to reliable sources in Pakistan, this is one of the options being considered by the political and military leadership to ward off public criticism over the perceived inaction of the political and military leaders in the face of the repeated violations of Pakistan's sovereignty by U.S. Drone (pilotless) aircraft in the tribal belt in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and at Abbottabad by the naval commandos.
3. The violation of the sovereignty at Abbottabad has been particularly galling to officers at the lower and middle levels of the Armed Forces. The reputation till now enjoyed by Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), in the eyes of these officers as a quiet strong man has been dented. Many of these officers no longer regard him as strong as they originally thought he was.
4.Concern over the damage suffered by the reputation of Kayani and other senior officers is behind Kayan's visits to many garrison towns after a Corps Commanders' conference in the GHQ in Rawalpindi last week to explain why the Abbottabad raid took the army by surprise.
5. According to these sources, many in the Corps Commanders conference voiced their disquiet over the failure of the civilian political leadership----particularly President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani--- to vigorously defend the Army and the ISI in the face of the attacks on their competence and professional integrity emanating from high levels of the U.S. Administration, including Mr. Leon Panetta, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who co-ordinated the commando raid.
6. The aggressive anti-U.S. remarks of Gilani in the National Assembly on May 9 were prompted by the seething anger in the Army over the perceived hesitation in the civilian leadership in coming to the defence of the Army and the ISI. The cordiality that till now prevailed in the relationship between Prime Minister Gilani and Kayani is showing signs of being dissipated.
7. These sources feel that the danger of another coup being staged by a resentful army is remote because the Army is no longer confident of enjoying the support of the increasingly independent and fearless judiciary in legitimising any coup post-facto. At the same time, the Army's disillusionment with the leadership qualities of Zardari is showing signs of increasing and pressures are likely to increase for his exit. The salvos against Zardari and Gilani fired by Shah Mehmood Quereshi, former Foreign Minister, for their incompetent handling of the Abbottabad raid have been inspired by his Army backers.
8. These sources add that it is in this context that suggestions are being made for some dramatic action by the political and military leadership to salvage the reputation of the country. One such suggestion is for a unilateral renunciation of U.S. assistance. Whether this option will be accepted and implemented or not will depend on the kind of support China is prepared to extend should Pakistan unilaterally renounce U.S. assistance. To ascertain this will be the principal objective of Gilani's four-day visit to China from May 17. The fact that Gilani has not immediately dashed off to Beijing, but will be going only after a week would indicate a desire to avoid over-reaction in the heat of the moment. (11-5-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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My comment: Pakistan can do anything it wants. It is a sovereign nation. Pakistan would not be the first to forgo U.S. money after finding out all the strings attached. The Palestinians have done so publicly; and yet, the spigot has not yet turned off. Domestically too, States are increasingly refusing Federal money for all kinds of projects.
Can Pakistan unilaterally renounce U.S. assistance in protest against the violation of its sovereignty by the U.S. naval commandos who raided Osama bin Laden's house at Abbottabad on the night of May 1,2011, and killed him and as a mark of its indignation over the crescendo of U.S. allegations and suspicions regarding a possible complicity of the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in facilitating OBL's stay at Abbottabad for nearly five years?
2. According to reliable sources in Pakistan, this is one of the options being considered by the political and military leadership to ward off public criticism over the perceived inaction of the political and military leaders in the face of the repeated violations of Pakistan's sovereignty by U.S. Drone (pilotless) aircraft in the tribal belt in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and at Abbottabad by the naval commandos.
3. The violation of the sovereignty at Abbottabad has been particularly galling to officers at the lower and middle levels of the Armed Forces. The reputation till now enjoyed by Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), in the eyes of these officers as a quiet strong man has been dented. Many of these officers no longer regard him as strong as they originally thought he was.
4.Concern over the damage suffered by the reputation of Kayani and other senior officers is behind Kayan's visits to many garrison towns after a Corps Commanders' conference in the GHQ in Rawalpindi last week to explain why the Abbottabad raid took the army by surprise.
5. According to these sources, many in the Corps Commanders conference voiced their disquiet over the failure of the civilian political leadership----particularly President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani--- to vigorously defend the Army and the ISI in the face of the attacks on their competence and professional integrity emanating from high levels of the U.S. Administration, including Mr. Leon Panetta, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who co-ordinated the commando raid.
6. The aggressive anti-U.S. remarks of Gilani in the National Assembly on May 9 were prompted by the seething anger in the Army over the perceived hesitation in the civilian leadership in coming to the defence of the Army and the ISI. The cordiality that till now prevailed in the relationship between Prime Minister Gilani and Kayani is showing signs of being dissipated.
7. These sources feel that the danger of another coup being staged by a resentful army is remote because the Army is no longer confident of enjoying the support of the increasingly independent and fearless judiciary in legitimising any coup post-facto. At the same time, the Army's disillusionment with the leadership qualities of Zardari is showing signs of increasing and pressures are likely to increase for his exit. The salvos against Zardari and Gilani fired by Shah Mehmood Quereshi, former Foreign Minister, for their incompetent handling of the Abbottabad raid have been inspired by his Army backers.
8. These sources add that it is in this context that suggestions are being made for some dramatic action by the political and military leadership to salvage the reputation of the country. One such suggestion is for a unilateral renunciation of U.S. assistance. Whether this option will be accepted and implemented or not will depend on the kind of support China is prepared to extend should Pakistan unilaterally renounce U.S. assistance. To ascertain this will be the principal objective of Gilani's four-day visit to China from May 17. The fact that Gilani has not immediately dashed off to Beijing, but will be going only after a week would indicate a desire to avoid over-reaction in the heat of the moment. (11-5-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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My comment: Pakistan can do anything it wants. It is a sovereign nation. Pakistan would not be the first to forgo U.S. money after finding out all the strings attached. The Palestinians have done so publicly; and yet, the spigot has not yet turned off. Domestically too, States are increasingly refusing Federal money for all kinds of projects.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Cornerstone
For a long time now, money has trumped ideology. This is no longer the case – especially now that every dollar essentially amounts to an IOU. The ideologies of China and the Islamists share only a disgust of corrupted capitalism. Otherwise, they differ in significant ways. After the West has been defeated, these differences will come to the fore and begin to cause problems. China will have to tread pretty carefully for their alliance with Pakistan to work. In the Islamist’s eyes, they too are infidels, tolerated only because they are now brothers in arms.
Seldom discussed (except on Thursdays on The John Batchelor Show) is the pivotal role of Israel. We can pretty much predict how Israel is likely to react to an imminent existential threat for it shares our own sensibilities. Since Obama’s one vote-one man-one time election, it is rather our reaction to an attack on Israel that remains a question. I predict we will do nothing – this despite the clamor of the American people to step in to help.
Whether by its own effort or with the aid of someone else, Israel will survive. India may rise to the role of Good Samaritan. It has a strong a spiritual tradition and will inherently understand what is at stake. Do not summarily reject the spiritual dimension in all this; and don’t rule out China. They might well jump in as well, seeking to profit from the purely practical aspect of doing so. The Islamists will be defeated as they have defiled their religion. America will stand disgraced on the sidelines for the same reason.
And ‘the stone the builders rejected will once again become the cornerstone’ – Psalm 118:22.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Is Osama Dead?
It’s now pretty clear that Pakistan has been playing a double game. It’s likely that U.S. intelligence knew this. Pakistan represents the pivot between East and West. It’s always solicited money from both sides. If you notice, the major tensions in the world right now are all happening to the west of Pakistan right now. China views Pakistan as a dam to keep the poisoned sectarian waters flowing east.
The bin Laden killing has very little to do with all this. For one thing, ‘getting bin Laden’ was only important to America – especially to Obama who needs it as a reelection prop. The confusion disseminated by the WH in the aftermath of the assassination points to something that the WH does not want the American public to know. It was orchestrated primarily to make America’s current president look good. Indications now are that Obama had help. (1) It is no longer credible that Pakistan was unaware; and (2) given Pakistan’s close ties with China, we can assume that China knew as well.
As far as both Pakistan and China are concerned, neither one particularly cared whether bin Laden lived or died. What it finally took was a request from the WH to make it happen and any incentives that the Obama administration was willing to provide.
My own pet theory is that Osama died years ago in some cave of kidney failure; that this too was known. And that the raid was staged. This would explain some of the scrambling for a narrative we are witnessing. What happens next will depend on the likely dead-cat-bounce in Obama’s poll numbers.
Pakistan and China have now got theirs as well. Obama will declare “mission accomplished” and withdraw his troops from Afghanistan, leaving the field wide open for them. Perhaps this is why we have been so reluctant to destroy the poppy fields, the only viable industry in the country. China will use Pakistan as a proxy to restore tranquility to the region. The Saudis will help. With America now completely out of the picture, the next move is Iran’s.
Is Osama dead? Probably. When did he die? Unknown.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Clouds Gathering
Things are starting to come into focus. Let’s stipulate for a moment that all we’ve been hearing is true; that Obama is actually native born, and that he succeeded in finding and killing Osama; that Osama hasn’t really been dead for years and that it’s not only just now that Obama is taking credit for his corpse. Let’s even say that Pakistan was involved in the ruse (which now seems likely) and that the whole thing hinged on a deal by which Obama get’s Osama and Pakistan gets Afghanistan. How does this help Obama?
Well, for one thing, judging from the reaction of both the left and right media, Obama is counting on his poll numbers to go up – and stay up. He’ll be able to say to the American public that the war in Afghanistan is now over and we can withdraw our troops. Americans would view this as welcome news and give full credit to our heroic and victorious president - and reelect him to a second term.
The problem is that the world has changed since 9/11. What has changed is that the Left and the Islamists are now united and are working in consort for a common goal. The movement that started with bin Laden is no longer strictly Arab based. It is based on the far broader idea of ending western capitalism. There are strong indications that Obama is quite on board with that. This would make POTUS our very own home-grown “Jihad Johnny” (Walker, a.k.a. ‘The American Taliban’).
The fly in the ointment is the Islamic inviolable desire to push Israel into the sea and that this must occur before anything else happens. POTUS has already shown himself as being no particular friend of Israel. Yet, he still depends heavily on (liberal) Jewish support. This would require him to play a double game. He must seem to please both the Arabs as well as the Jews.
The best way for him to proceed would be to work against Israel in a stealth manner. We note that every maneuver of his is designed to weaken Israel and strengthen her adversaries. It is my belief that he intends for Israel to fall while keeping his own hands clean. I do not believe this strategy will work. When push comes to shove, Israel will either successfully defend herself or receive help from an unexpected source. (China?)
At this point, the Left-Islamic coalition will come off the rails and the game will be exposed. The West will turn on a dime and fight back. None of this will be pretty to watch; but in the end all will turn out alright. The cleanup will be tremendous though. Economies will be in ruins and there will be plenty of blood. Islamists will meet up with their sainted martyrdom and the Left will be pursued to the ends of the earth.
We are reminded of the start of the Second World War. It’s difficult to imagine such a war without the U.S. being on the side of the good guys. But Germany turned out alright in the end, after everything was said and done. It’s just a shame that we will have to go through the whole mess all over again.
You might want to re-read my article entitled “The Tables Are Turning”, posted June 4th, 2010 for some background re elitism and how Israel fits into the overall picture.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Saturday, April 30, 2011
China Watch: INDIA'S REJECTION OF U.S. AIRCRAFT
by B.RAMAN
Chinese netizens interested in strategic issues have been showing interest in India's reported decision to go for European jet fighters for its Air Force in preference to the aircaft offered by U.S. companies. They see this as a possible reflection of India's unhappiness over the continuing U.S. restrictive policies relating to the transfer of high technology to India. Another point being made is that the U.S. support for India's permanent membership of the UN Security Council was as a quid pro quo for the Indian selection of the U.S. aircaft. Now that India has rejected the U.S. aircraft, will the U.S. still support India's permanent membership of the UNSC?
2. Annexed are some comments carried in the People's Forum section of the party-owned "People's Daily" online on the subject on May 1,2011. It is not clear whether these comments are of the "People's Daily" readers or have been lifted from non-Chinese sources. Normally, when the comments are lifted from non-Chinese sources, the sources are identified. In this case, no source has been identified for the post as a whole. ( 1-5-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
ANNEXURE
(Text of a post in the "People's Forum" section of the "People's Daily" online carried on May 1,2011)
India arms contract spurns U.S. fighters
India has shortlisted European jet fighters, in preference to U.S. and Russian rivals, in a hotly contested $11bn competition to supply the Indian air force with advanced combat aircraft.
At stake is a deal to equip India with 126 multi-role fighter jets in one of the world’s largest military contracts. The winning bid is expected to shape India’s air power for the next three decades and serve as the bedrock of a strategic partnership.
After trials, India selected France’s Dassault Rafale and the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon – both currently operating over Libya – to compete in the next stage of the competition, according to India’s defence ministry. A spokesman told the Financial Times that a final decision would be taken within a year.
The move will be a blow to the U.S. Washington strongly lobbied India to buy its aircraft as payback for the landmark Indian-U.S. civil nuclear deal in 2008. The agreement – brokered by Manmohan Singh, Indian premier, and then-U.S. president George W. Bush – brought India’s nuclear programme out of decades of global isolation.
Timothy Roemer, U.S. ambassador to Delhi, said the U.S. was “deeply disappointed” by the decision not to select U.S. defence companies. Earlier on Thursday, Mr. Roemer, a personal friend of Barack Obama, U.S. president, announced his resignation.
While Mr. Roemer said he was leaving India for personal reasons, as ambassador he had heavily promoted the U.S. bids. He said he had “accomplished all of the strategic objectives set forth two years ago” when he took the job.
Top Indian officials and politicians had indicated that they wished to buy U.S. military hardware to improve a fast-warming relationship between the two democracies in the wake of the transformative nuclear deal.
Are U.S. export policies to blame?
Defense contractors and industry experts are trying to come to grips with India’s decision to exclude The Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. from its $11 billion competition for a new fighter jet.
"India's decision was very surprising", says Tom Captain, vice chairman of global and U.S. aerospace and defense leader at Deloitte LLP. If the selection was based on technical merits, "it is difficult to explain how those two very capable aircraft were eliminated."
In the absence of factual information about how the selection was made, speculation is growing that restrictive U.S. export policies may have played a significant role in India’s evaluation of fighter jet candidates.
India is projected to spend $80 billion on new weapons and space systems over the next five years. It’s only a small fraction of what the United States spends, but the industry still regards it as a promising region where, once you get a foot in the door, opportunities could blossom.
Defense industry analyst Byron Callan contends that “technology transfer was a major consideration in this competition.”
Larry Christensen, an export controls attorney at Miller & Chevalier, in Washington, D.C., believes the Indian decision will have lasting implications for U.S. industry, even though, he says, he has not seen any proof that India’s choice was influenced by ITAR, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations that restrict exports of sensitive U.S. technology.
"The fact that an emerging power such as India would snub U.S. advanced weaponry offers further evidence that the current export control system — which dates back to the Cold War — has outlived its effectiveness", Christensen says. “The U.S. government cannot repeal the laws of economics,” he says. As the United States denies access to some of its best technology, it leaves a market void that, sooner or later, another country will fill. “When that happens, the U.S. export control policy of denial, or policy of heavy restrictions, become ineffective” for the purposes of barring potential enemies access to advanced weaponry."
It's a surprise for many analysts that U.S. fighters didn't win out. In recently years, America has been trying to court India by asserting its supportive stance over India's aspiration for a permenant UNSC seat. America arms makers are one of beneficiaries in the improved bilateral ties. They even got deals from India with big number without competing with rivals in public bidding. Some defense experts said the embarrassing result indicates that India's wariness toward America...
------------------------------------
My comment: Too many strings attached; U.S. economic and political stability questioned.
Chinese netizens interested in strategic issues have been showing interest in India's reported decision to go for European jet fighters for its Air Force in preference to the aircaft offered by U.S. companies. They see this as a possible reflection of India's unhappiness over the continuing U.S. restrictive policies relating to the transfer of high technology to India. Another point being made is that the U.S. support for India's permanent membership of the UN Security Council was as a quid pro quo for the Indian selection of the U.S. aircaft. Now that India has rejected the U.S. aircraft, will the U.S. still support India's permanent membership of the UNSC?
2. Annexed are some comments carried in the People's Forum section of the party-owned "People's Daily" online on the subject on May 1,2011. It is not clear whether these comments are of the "People's Daily" readers or have been lifted from non-Chinese sources. Normally, when the comments are lifted from non-Chinese sources, the sources are identified. In this case, no source has been identified for the post as a whole. ( 1-5-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
ANNEXURE
(Text of a post in the "People's Forum" section of the "People's Daily" online carried on May 1,2011)
India arms contract spurns U.S. fighters
India has shortlisted European jet fighters, in preference to U.S. and Russian rivals, in a hotly contested $11bn competition to supply the Indian air force with advanced combat aircraft.
At stake is a deal to equip India with 126 multi-role fighter jets in one of the world’s largest military contracts. The winning bid is expected to shape India’s air power for the next three decades and serve as the bedrock of a strategic partnership.
After trials, India selected France’s Dassault Rafale and the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon – both currently operating over Libya – to compete in the next stage of the competition, according to India’s defence ministry. A spokesman told the Financial Times that a final decision would be taken within a year.
The move will be a blow to the U.S. Washington strongly lobbied India to buy its aircraft as payback for the landmark Indian-U.S. civil nuclear deal in 2008. The agreement – brokered by Manmohan Singh, Indian premier, and then-U.S. president George W. Bush – brought India’s nuclear programme out of decades of global isolation.
Timothy Roemer, U.S. ambassador to Delhi, said the U.S. was “deeply disappointed” by the decision not to select U.S. defence companies. Earlier on Thursday, Mr. Roemer, a personal friend of Barack Obama, U.S. president, announced his resignation.
While Mr. Roemer said he was leaving India for personal reasons, as ambassador he had heavily promoted the U.S. bids. He said he had “accomplished all of the strategic objectives set forth two years ago” when he took the job.
Top Indian officials and politicians had indicated that they wished to buy U.S. military hardware to improve a fast-warming relationship between the two democracies in the wake of the transformative nuclear deal.
Are U.S. export policies to blame?
Defense contractors and industry experts are trying to come to grips with India’s decision to exclude The Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. from its $11 billion competition for a new fighter jet.
"India's decision was very surprising", says Tom Captain, vice chairman of global and U.S. aerospace and defense leader at Deloitte LLP. If the selection was based on technical merits, "it is difficult to explain how those two very capable aircraft were eliminated."
In the absence of factual information about how the selection was made, speculation is growing that restrictive U.S. export policies may have played a significant role in India’s evaluation of fighter jet candidates.
India is projected to spend $80 billion on new weapons and space systems over the next five years. It’s only a small fraction of what the United States spends, but the industry still regards it as a promising region where, once you get a foot in the door, opportunities could blossom.
Defense industry analyst Byron Callan contends that “technology transfer was a major consideration in this competition.”
Larry Christensen, an export controls attorney at Miller & Chevalier, in Washington, D.C., believes the Indian decision will have lasting implications for U.S. industry, even though, he says, he has not seen any proof that India’s choice was influenced by ITAR, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations that restrict exports of sensitive U.S. technology.
"The fact that an emerging power such as India would snub U.S. advanced weaponry offers further evidence that the current export control system — which dates back to the Cold War — has outlived its effectiveness", Christensen says. “The U.S. government cannot repeal the laws of economics,” he says. As the United States denies access to some of its best technology, it leaves a market void that, sooner or later, another country will fill. “When that happens, the U.S. export control policy of denial, or policy of heavy restrictions, become ineffective” for the purposes of barring potential enemies access to advanced weaponry."
It's a surprise for many analysts that U.S. fighters didn't win out. In recently years, America has been trying to court India by asserting its supportive stance over India's aspiration for a permenant UNSC seat. America arms makers are one of beneficiaries in the improved bilateral ties. They even got deals from India with big number without competing with rivals in public bidding. Some defense experts said the embarrassing result indicates that India's wariness toward America...
------------------------------------
My comment: Too many strings attached; U.S. economic and political stability questioned.
Hu Jintao Is Awesome
In Japan, when people screw up, they resign – sometimes permanently - from everything. At the very least, they say, “I’m sorry” and ask what they can do to make amends. This would not work in the U.S., primarily because we have taken the concept of ‘failure’ off the table. We no longer know what ‘failure’ is. Nor do we know ‘success’.
We use these terms loosely as carrots and sticks, depending on whether or not we like any given person. ‘Liking’ or not becomes the ultimate criteria that dictates how we respond. If we like somebody and they do something bad, we either ignore it or shift the blame to someone whom we do not like. Similarly, if we hate a person, and this person then does something good, the credit for it gets shifted to someone we consider ‘good’ (even if he had nothing to do with it). In short, individual action – no matter what the result – will never be judged other than in light of one’s standing within the assumed hierarchy of liking or not liking.
That’s how we got to the point where anything a Democrat does is always good and anything a Republican does is always bad. The concept has now been expanded to include race, gender and religious affiliation. We have been told over and over again just who the bad guys are. Performance has very little to do with it, though we still use performance metrics as a club to enforce politically assigned assumptions.
We have since learned that a nation does not run itself; that competent leadership is essential. In fact, we have learned that things can always get worse. Bush wasn’t so great – or so we were told. ‘Anybody but Bush’ would do just fine. Many of us are still trying mightily to prove this theory right. After all, we’ve done exactly what we were told we should do. We’ve elected (good) Democrats to run the most important offices in the land. Things haven’t exactly worked out. We might even say that things have gotten worse. Now we are struggling with the notion that this is how things should actually be.
Katrina was easy. It was Bush’s fault all the way. Bush hated black people and wanted to give them their comeuppance. Now, with the tornados in the South, we can’t exactly blame Obama. He’s doing the best he can; besides, he has come out against ‘global warming’ which would presumably assure that nothing like this ever happens again. It’s only Republicans who continue to stand in the way of his ‘green power’ initiatives that’s keeping this president from solving our weather problem for good.
It’s pretty much the same thing with everything else. Life has become entirely too complicated for representative government to work. The leaders of China have a much easier time of it.
They can build dams, roads and cities at the snap of a finger. They can build high-speed rail and carrier battle groups. They can move populations. They can stifle opposition. No wonder President Obama thinks Hu Jintao is perfectly awesome.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Monday, April 25, 2011
China Watch: SUPPRESSION OF MONKS IN SICHUAN
by B.RAMAN
Reports received from the Sichuan province of China speak of the arrest of about 300 Buddhist monks belonging to the Kirti monastery in the Ngaba Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of the province for protesting against forcible re-education classes organized by the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, China ’s internal intelligence agency, for the monks in the monastery.
2. The re-education classes were organized by the Ministry of Public Security following the self-immolation of a monk on March 17,2001, to protest against the Chinese colonization of the Tibetan areas. Before committing self-immolation, the monk reportedly shouted slogans in praise of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and called for the return of His Holiness to Tibet .
3. Thereafter, Chinese police and para-military forces occupied the monastery, seized and destroyed any literature praising His Holiness and pictures of His Holiness. They also forced the inmates of the monastery to attend re-education classes during which they were asked to shout slogans condemning His Holiness and praising the Communist Party of China.
4. On April 21,2011, the Ministry of Public Security officials arrested about 300 protesting monks and forcibly removed them in police vehicles to camps set up in the nearby counties of Wenchuan,Mao and LI which the Tibetans call Lunggu, Maowun and Tashiling respectively. When the local residents heard of the arrest and removal of the monks to detention camps, some of them protested and tried to prevent their forcible removal. Two elderly local residents were reportedly killed when the police and para-military forces used force to disperse them.
5. The Chinese also arrested 200 local residents for trying to prevent the arrest and removal of the monks and shifted them to a military camp. Many of them have since been released, but the younger elements have been detained. The Chinese seem to be worried about the likely reaction of the Tibetan youth to the developments and they are being kept under close watch.
6. Meanwhile, in a letter dated April 14,2001, addressed to the UN Secretary-General, Mr.Ban Ki-Moon, Tibet ’s exile parliament has drawn the attention of the UN to “the deteriorating human rights situation in Tibet .” The letter said: “The security, dignity and human rights of over 2,500 monks of Kirti monastery, one of Tibet ’s most important monasteries, stand critically threatened.” The U.S. State Department has said that it had raised the issue of the Kirti developments with Chinese officials. Mark Toner, a spokesman of the Department, said: “ China ’s actions are inconsistent with internationally recognized principles of religious freedom and human rights We continue to monitor the situation closely and are obviously concerned by it.”
7.The monastery normally has about 2500 monks. About 300 of them, who are looked upon by the Chinese as the ringleaders of the protest movement, have been forcibly removed by the Chinese to detention camps. About 200 are reported to have escaped from the monastery and taken shelter in the adjoining villages of Tibetan herdsmen. About 2000 monks are reported to be still in the monastery. Reliable source reports say that they are facing acute food shortage since the Chinese have curtailed the supply of food articles to the monastery in an attempt to force the monks still in the monastery to attend re-education classes and condemn His Holiness.
8. Following the attempt of some local residents to prevent the arrest and removal of 300 monks, the Chinese have also started re-education classes for the local residents, most of whom are herdsmen. (25-4-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi , and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
-------------------------------------------------
My comment: We, here in America, too are running re-education camps under the guise of ‘education’ (our schools and universities). Only Marxist ideology is approved of and validated by academe. As reprehensible as all this is, there is one key difference between what we and the PLA are doing. In the case of China, they are doing it to shore up their defenses against the upheavals that can be expected in the wake of America's ultimate undoing - which to many now seems certain - while we are effectively applauding our own demise.
Reports received from the Sichuan province of China speak of the arrest of about 300 Buddhist monks belonging to the Kirti monastery in the Ngaba Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of the province for protesting against forcible re-education classes organized by the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, China ’s internal intelligence agency, for the monks in the monastery.
2. The re-education classes were organized by the Ministry of Public Security following the self-immolation of a monk on March 17,2001, to protest against the Chinese colonization of the Tibetan areas. Before committing self-immolation, the monk reportedly shouted slogans in praise of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and called for the return of His Holiness to Tibet .
3. Thereafter, Chinese police and para-military forces occupied the monastery, seized and destroyed any literature praising His Holiness and pictures of His Holiness. They also forced the inmates of the monastery to attend re-education classes during which they were asked to shout slogans condemning His Holiness and praising the Communist Party of China.
4. On April 21,2011, the Ministry of Public Security officials arrested about 300 protesting monks and forcibly removed them in police vehicles to camps set up in the nearby counties of Wenchuan,Mao and LI which the Tibetans call Lunggu, Maowun and Tashiling respectively. When the local residents heard of the arrest and removal of the monks to detention camps, some of them protested and tried to prevent their forcible removal. Two elderly local residents were reportedly killed when the police and para-military forces used force to disperse them.
5. The Chinese also arrested 200 local residents for trying to prevent the arrest and removal of the monks and shifted them to a military camp. Many of them have since been released, but the younger elements have been detained. The Chinese seem to be worried about the likely reaction of the Tibetan youth to the developments and they are being kept under close watch.
6. Meanwhile, in a letter dated April 14,2001, addressed to the UN Secretary-General, Mr.Ban Ki-Moon, Tibet ’s exile parliament has drawn the attention of the UN to “the deteriorating human rights situation in Tibet .” The letter said: “The security, dignity and human rights of over 2,500 monks of Kirti monastery, one of Tibet ’s most important monasteries, stand critically threatened.” The U.S. State Department has said that it had raised the issue of the Kirti developments with Chinese officials. Mark Toner, a spokesman of the Department, said: “ China ’s actions are inconsistent with internationally recognized principles of religious freedom and human rights We continue to monitor the situation closely and are obviously concerned by it.”
7.The monastery normally has about 2500 monks. About 300 of them, who are looked upon by the Chinese as the ringleaders of the protest movement, have been forcibly removed by the Chinese to detention camps. About 200 are reported to have escaped from the monastery and taken shelter in the adjoining villages of Tibetan herdsmen. About 2000 monks are reported to be still in the monastery. Reliable source reports say that they are facing acute food shortage since the Chinese have curtailed the supply of food articles to the monastery in an attempt to force the monks still in the monastery to attend re-education classes and condemn His Holiness.
8. Following the attempt of some local residents to prevent the arrest and removal of 300 monks, the Chinese have also started re-education classes for the local residents, most of whom are herdsmen. (25-4-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi , and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
-------------------------------------------------
My comment: We, here in America, too are running re-education camps under the guise of ‘education’ (our schools and universities). Only Marxist ideology is approved of and validated by academe. As reprehensible as all this is, there is one key difference between what we and the PLA are doing. In the case of China, they are doing it to shore up their defenses against the upheavals that can be expected in the wake of America's ultimate undoing - which to many now seems certain - while we are effectively applauding our own demise.
Cornered Dogs Bite
Every human thought leaves an imprint. When I look across my front lawn in the morning after a freshly fallen snow, I see it crisscrossed with animal spoors. Each one is different. It is not the difference in the appearance of the tracks that is significant; rather, it is the fact that there was movement: each animal wanted to get from one place to another. It is doubtful that two or more animals ever met because each track was likely made in its own time. If there had been some threat, all the tracks would show the animals running in one direction – away from the danger. In the absence of a threat, the pattern is quite random.
Reading this morning’s headlines, we find that the stampede against the U.S. dollar continues, now with the IMF chiming in. We read that long-standing alliances are rupturing with nations fleeing U.S. entanglements and influence, seeking something more stable, more predictable. They do not make a value judgment as to what’s right, wrong or fair. They simply look to attach themselves to what they perceive as power that would serve to protect them.
The USS America is sinking – whether by benign neglect, sabotage or by deliberate design – and the whole world is running away from the disaster that has become rap America. The pattern in the snow is now discernible. Argentina is now embracing the Venezuelan model. Venezuela has adopted the Tehran model (as have Turkey, Syria, Egypt, etc.) Israel remains undecided. She finds herself cornered. What Israel is likely to do remains a mystery. India too is at a loss to know which way to turn. China faces internal problems. She is keeping her powder dry, knowing that chaos will arrive at her doorstep soon enough. She is doing her best to shore up her defenses (while the West views it as aggression). Japan has her own problems.
We can sit here and evaluate each turn of the screw within its own frame. Every happenstance is quite worthy of a tome or two – even an entire library of tomes. We can go back in history and learn what has happened before, how it developed and the ultimate result - all of it, simply to keep the blogs pumping out words like the ash from a volcano that obscures its source.
The source is America’s continuing disintegration. It’s not true, as some would proclaim that America’s sinking would leave nary a ripple. It has and will produce wave after wave and the result is all but certain: chaos, dislocation and bloodshed. Cornered dogs have been known to bite. We all will be tempted to bite in a last-ditch effort as we dig deeper and deeper down into our emptying pockets to appease those with tyrannical intent - the ones with the biggest clubs and the willingness to use them. Thoughts of freedom and liberty – even dignity - will become subservient to our will to survive.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Friday, April 22, 2011
China Watch: CHINA USES ITS BLOGGERS AGAIN TO ANNOUNCE STEALTH PROGRESS
by B.RAMAN
China has once again used its bloggers ----possibly belonging to the People's Liberation Army (PLA)--- to indicate to the world in general and to the US in particular that it successfully carried out the second test flight of its J-20 Stealth aircraft---still under development--- on April 17,2011, from the Chengdu military airport in the Sichuan province.
2. The Chinese authorities, who have not yet made an official announcement of the successful flight, used the same procedure as they did during its maiden flight in January to let the world know of their success---- they apparently alerted a group of bloggers around the Chengdu military airport about the impending flight and encouraged them to cover the flight through postings of their visual observations in their blogs.
3. A detailed report carried by the Party-controlled "Global Times" on April 19,2011, on the flight is annexed. According to the bloggers, who had timed the two flights of J-20, whereas the first flight in January lasted only 20 minutes, the second flight on April 17 lasted about 85 minutes. It took off at 4-25 PM and landed at 5-50 PM.
4. Why do the Chinese use the bloggers for announcing the flights instead of doing so officially? A convincing answer to this question is not available. One reason could be to maintain the deniability of any possible failures, but that is not a convincing answer. If they don't encourage any leaks of impending flights the deniability of failures would be even stronger.
5. Are the bloggers making the postings simultaneously with the flights or after the flights have successfully ended? Since in the latest case, the flight lasted about 85 minutes it should have been possible for Western intelligence agencies, which monitor Chinese blogs, to simultaneously track the flights or to determine whether the blog postings are being made after the flights are successfully over.
6. According to Western experts, the J-20 has a height of 5 metres ( 5.08 in the case of the US F-22 Raptor), weight 17600 kgs ( 19700), cruising speed 2100 kph (2500 plus) and estimated unit cost US $ 110 million ( US $ 130 million ). Some US experts suspect that the Chinese were able to develop the stealth technology from parts of an American F-117 Nighthawk that was shot down over Serbia in 1999 and parts of which they allegedly managed to acquire from the locals.
7.Is the J-20 still at the concept demonstration stage or is it a prototype moving towards production?Many believe after studying the two tests that the Chinese are past the concept demonstration stage and are now gradually moving towards production. ( 22-4-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presenhtly, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
("Global Times" report of April 19,2011)
Mystery jet 'flies' again
An alleged J-20 prototype prepares to take off from the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute's airfield in Sichuan Province on Sunday.
By Xu Tianran and Huang Jingjing
Photos of China's J-20 stealth fighter prototype are all the rage on online military forums, after word emerged that another test flight was completed Sunday when officials in Beijing celebrated the 60th anniversary of the establishment of China's aviation industry.
Some of the online footage showed scores of military enthusiasts yelling when an aircraft flew over the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute's airfield in Sichuan Province, but it was unclear whether the plane was the J-20 prototype.
"The J-20 made several passes and waggled its wings (rolling the plane first to one side then to the other) to salute the crowd near the airfield," a witness told the Global Times on condition of anonymity, adding that the plane took off at around 4:25 pm and landed at about 5:50 pm.
As of press time, Chinese authorities had not commented on the issue, but the Xinhua News Agency posted another clip of the flight uploaded by Internet users.
The J-20 prototype made its 18-minute debut flight in Chengdu on January 11, when US Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Beijing. Since then, it has been touted as a potential challenger to the US Air Force's F-22 Raptor, the world's only fifth-generation fighter jet.
Xu Yongling, one of China's top test pilots, said that if Sunday's test flight proved true, it would be more or less the same as the first test, but Xu noted that every test is one step closer to mass production.
"The first 10 to 20 tests are meant to calibrate the entire aircraft, including its stability, handling qualities and performance. All of them are short in time, but the entire process will take years to complete," Xu told the Global Times on Monday.
The alleged test flight coincided with a celebration in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday that marked the 60th anniversary of China's aviation industry.
Lin Zuoming, general manager of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), pledged at the ceremony to push forward the development of next-generation aircraft and to make breakthroughs in propulsion systems.
"By 2015, the research and design of all key models will be completed," Lin said, adding that inferior engine design has been a "bottleneck" for the advancement of China's aviation industry.
According to him, AVIC will invest 10 billion yuan ($1.52 billion) in engine development, which is equivalent to its net profit from 2010.
However, this amount of investment is unimpressive when compared with other major engine projects.
According to a press release from Pratt & Whitney, the company was awarded a contract valued at more than $4 billion in 2001 to develop its F135 engine for the US air force's F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft.
Lin also urged speedup in transferring technology to civil aviation, saying China's aviation industry cannot rely solely on the military.
Wang Zhilin, general manager of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, told CCTV on Sunday that, by 2020, China's C919 passenger jet will be equipped with engines designed by AVIC.
"By 2021, the Chinese aviation industry will be at the same level as major players in the world and have become the outstanding supplier of air defense equipment," Lin added.
Separately, another rumor circulated on the Internet recently involving the alleged J-18, China's first warplane with vertical/short takeoff and landing capabilities.
Earlier this month, citing a report by Japan's Asahi Shimbun newspaper, Phoenix Television said the J-18 had completed a test flight at a field base in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
The report said the wings of the jet, similar to Russia's Su-33, a carrier-based multi-role fighter, could be folded, and suspected that it would be installed on China's future aircraft carrier.
The report came at the same time as foreign media speculated that China's first aircraft carrier, a modification of the Varyag bought from Ukraine, would take to the oceans in July. The Chinese military has denied such reports.
Ding Zhiyong, a spokesperson at the AVIC, told the Global Times on Monday that the Japanese report of the alleged J-18 was pure speculation and that the corporation had no information to reveal.
Li Daguang, a professor specializing in military strategy at the National Defense University, told the Global Times earlier that even if the rumored carrier were true, the vessel would only be used for training.
Liu Linlin contributed to this story.
China has once again used its bloggers ----possibly belonging to the People's Liberation Army (PLA)--- to indicate to the world in general and to the US in particular that it successfully carried out the second test flight of its J-20 Stealth aircraft---still under development--- on April 17,2011, from the Chengdu military airport in the Sichuan province.
2. The Chinese authorities, who have not yet made an official announcement of the successful flight, used the same procedure as they did during its maiden flight in January to let the world know of their success---- they apparently alerted a group of bloggers around the Chengdu military airport about the impending flight and encouraged them to cover the flight through postings of their visual observations in their blogs.
3. A detailed report carried by the Party-controlled "Global Times" on April 19,2011, on the flight is annexed. According to the bloggers, who had timed the two flights of J-20, whereas the first flight in January lasted only 20 minutes, the second flight on April 17 lasted about 85 minutes. It took off at 4-25 PM and landed at 5-50 PM.
4. Why do the Chinese use the bloggers for announcing the flights instead of doing so officially? A convincing answer to this question is not available. One reason could be to maintain the deniability of any possible failures, but that is not a convincing answer. If they don't encourage any leaks of impending flights the deniability of failures would be even stronger.
5. Are the bloggers making the postings simultaneously with the flights or after the flights have successfully ended? Since in the latest case, the flight lasted about 85 minutes it should have been possible for Western intelligence agencies, which monitor Chinese blogs, to simultaneously track the flights or to determine whether the blog postings are being made after the flights are successfully over.
6. According to Western experts, the J-20 has a height of 5 metres ( 5.08 in the case of the US F-22 Raptor), weight 17600 kgs ( 19700), cruising speed 2100 kph (2500 plus) and estimated unit cost US $ 110 million ( US $ 130 million ). Some US experts suspect that the Chinese were able to develop the stealth technology from parts of an American F-117 Nighthawk that was shot down over Serbia in 1999 and parts of which they allegedly managed to acquire from the locals.
7.Is the J-20 still at the concept demonstration stage or is it a prototype moving towards production?Many believe after studying the two tests that the Chinese are past the concept demonstration stage and are now gradually moving towards production. ( 22-4-11)
(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presenhtly, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
("Global Times" report of April 19,2011)
Mystery jet 'flies' again
An alleged J-20 prototype prepares to take off from the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute's airfield in Sichuan Province on Sunday.
By Xu Tianran and Huang Jingjing
Photos of China's J-20 stealth fighter prototype are all the rage on online military forums, after word emerged that another test flight was completed Sunday when officials in Beijing celebrated the 60th anniversary of the establishment of China's aviation industry.
Some of the online footage showed scores of military enthusiasts yelling when an aircraft flew over the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute's airfield in Sichuan Province, but it was unclear whether the plane was the J-20 prototype.
"The J-20 made several passes and waggled its wings (rolling the plane first to one side then to the other) to salute the crowd near the airfield," a witness told the Global Times on condition of anonymity, adding that the plane took off at around 4:25 pm and landed at about 5:50 pm.
As of press time, Chinese authorities had not commented on the issue, but the Xinhua News Agency posted another clip of the flight uploaded by Internet users.
The J-20 prototype made its 18-minute debut flight in Chengdu on January 11, when US Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Beijing. Since then, it has been touted as a potential challenger to the US Air Force's F-22 Raptor, the world's only fifth-generation fighter jet.
Xu Yongling, one of China's top test pilots, said that if Sunday's test flight proved true, it would be more or less the same as the first test, but Xu noted that every test is one step closer to mass production.
"The first 10 to 20 tests are meant to calibrate the entire aircraft, including its stability, handling qualities and performance. All of them are short in time, but the entire process will take years to complete," Xu told the Global Times on Monday.
The alleged test flight coincided with a celebration in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday that marked the 60th anniversary of China's aviation industry.
Lin Zuoming, general manager of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), pledged at the ceremony to push forward the development of next-generation aircraft and to make breakthroughs in propulsion systems.
"By 2015, the research and design of all key models will be completed," Lin said, adding that inferior engine design has been a "bottleneck" for the advancement of China's aviation industry.
According to him, AVIC will invest 10 billion yuan ($1.52 billion) in engine development, which is equivalent to its net profit from 2010.
However, this amount of investment is unimpressive when compared with other major engine projects.
According to a press release from Pratt & Whitney, the company was awarded a contract valued at more than $4 billion in 2001 to develop its F135 engine for the US air force's F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft.
Lin also urged speedup in transferring technology to civil aviation, saying China's aviation industry cannot rely solely on the military.
Wang Zhilin, general manager of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, told CCTV on Sunday that, by 2020, China's C919 passenger jet will be equipped with engines designed by AVIC.
"By 2021, the Chinese aviation industry will be at the same level as major players in the world and have become the outstanding supplier of air defense equipment," Lin added.
Separately, another rumor circulated on the Internet recently involving the alleged J-18, China's first warplane with vertical/short takeoff and landing capabilities.
Earlier this month, citing a report by Japan's Asahi Shimbun newspaper, Phoenix Television said the J-18 had completed a test flight at a field base in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
The report said the wings of the jet, similar to Russia's Su-33, a carrier-based multi-role fighter, could be folded, and suspected that it would be installed on China's future aircraft carrier.
The report came at the same time as foreign media speculated that China's first aircraft carrier, a modification of the Varyag bought from Ukraine, would take to the oceans in July. The Chinese military has denied such reports.
Ding Zhiyong, a spokesperson at the AVIC, told the Global Times on Monday that the Japanese report of the alleged J-18 was pure speculation and that the corporation had no information to reveal.
Li Daguang, a professor specializing in military strategy at the National Defense University, told the Global Times earlier that even if the rumored carrier were true, the vessel would only be used for training.
Liu Linlin contributed to this story.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Second Coming
After yesterday’s presidential address I felt we had passed another milestone. Never have I heard so much malarkey being spouted from the mouth of the leader of a nation in a period of roughly 26 minutes.
He seemed uncomfortable in his own skin while speaking to the folks. Maybe it was because he wasn’t where he was supposed to be: in the Oval Office. Everything he said had been road-tested by his various apologists beforehand and then stitched together into an unruly quilt.
I was stunned. It was the first time I had actually witnessed unadulterated doublespeak.
What happened back in 2008 was not an election; it was a coup. Yesterday, our president looked lost and out of touch – would have felt much more comfortable among his UN buds. He did not want to give this speech; yet he had to, to maintain the pretense of representing a nation. Kaddafi seems much more convincing in this regard.
Obama echoed some past rhetorical abuses, saying how many lives were saved by this unilateral action. It brought to mind an earlier claim of ‘jobs saved’, implying that if it weren’t for him, nobody would now be working in this great country of ours.
Reminds of the film “Black Orpheus” (’59) in which the lead character gets up every morning and plays his guitar. He has convinced the town that if he were not to do it, the sun would not rise that day. After he dies, his young protégée takes up the task and the film ends.
We are left wondering what on earth we would do without BHO. How could we possibly keep rascals like Kaddafi in check? And even in this, he (Obama) displays a benevolent bent. He stops just short of giving the dictator the thumbs down. What compassion! What grace! What wisdom! …as transparent as any of these might be.
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Saif is not the elder. If he were to come to power, it would be enough for the American press to hail Obama as the second coming (again).
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Conspiracy Theory: History In Reverse
On this morning’s program, Beck laid it all out – soup to nuts. The players involve everyone in the Obama administration, union thugs, media flacks, prominent international figures (including Kaddafi) with George Soros at the top pulling the strings. Sounds like crazy talk. Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Those who believe in conspiracies are usually nut jobs. Right? – except when said conspiracy theories turn out to have been right all along. But, by then, conspiracies have become (often tragic) histories. And there’s no more time left to do something about it, other than live with the shame.
It’s not that I agree with all that Beck claims. There are some weak points and stretches. Overall, though, it sounds credible. It certainly does begin giving a shape to all we’ve been talking about (particularly) over the past two years – events that we believed stood alone and thus could be easily dismissed. I’m even starting to wonder about our friend, John Batchelor, and why he has been concentrating so hard on China lately. China, as I see it, is not part of the Soros deal. As such, it can only serve as a distraction from what is happening right under our noses.
Crazy talk or not, the time has come for a deeper examination of events than we’re getting. It’s interesting that there are some things that the media just won’t touch, while obvious examples are being made of those who dare to approach that third (Soros) rail – like Sarah Palin, for instance. (I'm talking about Palin's naked patriotism and her support of Israel.)
Then there is this from the “Business & Media” website (God knows who runs it) that published an article yesterday, entitled, “Unreported Soros Event Aims to Remake Entire Global Economy” by Dan Gainor. I’ve put up the link below (but I’m rather inept at this sort of thing, so I give you the information above as well).
http://www.mrc.org/bmi/commentary/2011/Unreported_Soros_Event_Aims_to_Remake_Entire_Global_Economy.html
It’s not that I’m against trying to remake the world. What I object to is how it’s being done. It’s being done in the proverbial smoke-filled back room by fat-cat elite narcissists. You can be quite certain they don’t have America’s best interests in mind.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Schoolyard Games (and Accidents)
Even more interesting to me than what’s happening at the moment is to watch the tectonic political plates of world alliances shifting. The heavy dude jumped off the see-saw, which sent all the other kids flying. Now the heavy dude is scrambling to get back on, but he’s hurt and someone’s taken him to the nurse’s office. She determines that the heavy dude is essentially out for the count; that there’s something other than just scratches, bumps and bruises ailing him. He may be insane.
Meanwhile, all the other kids are still crawling around on the ground. Some had their glasses knocked off. Now they’re trying to find each other. The see-saw has been abandoned. A new game must be found; new teams chosen. Turkey to Iran. Bahrain to the Saudis. Israel is the kid that no one will pick.
Germany to the Russians. The French want to go it alone. Pakistan to China. Brazil to Venezuela. India, alone. May have to form leagues with an eye towards finals. The fat kid still in rehab. Can no longer be counted on to do anything.
As the world turns: uncertainty and confusion. Posturing. Pawns are bleeding. Scramble, scramble. Where it ends up, nobody knows. ... and where the hell are the teachers? Union meetings, no doubt.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Sleepless in Chatham (NJ)
Obviously, not everyone agrees. There must then be more than one side to the story. Russia, China, India, et al were maneuvered into ‘agreeing’. They agreed by voting ‘present’ – which is a way of saying, “Do what you want, but we’ll have no part of it.”
Action involves risk. Risk must be balanced by benefit. For far too long American foreign policy has excluded any notion of ‘benefit’. It has been unbalanced. In Iraq we never insisted on payback. Its oil is now going to our rivals. As the chaos and killing there continues, we cannot even claim ‘victory’ on that front. Neither do we insist on Libya’s oil in exchange for our effort. And indeed, Libya’s oil is already spoken for and going to those who voted ‘present’.
You would think that Obama, of all people, would understand the benefits that accrue by voting ‘present’; that voting otherwise engenders risk which, in turn, invites loss. It has been my contention that Obama – whether by way of retribution or an affinity for victimhood - deliberately invites loss. Neither revenge nor national suicide are attractive to anyone but himself.
Saw the French film “Of Gods and Men” last night. As my friend and I settled ourselves outside afterwards to discuss the merits of the film, a woman approached us. She clearly had been disturbed by it. She said it was the worst film she had ever seen. She said it was good to have someone to talk it out with and hoped that she would not have bad dreams.
It was basically an anti-war film. In addition, it blamed the West. As such, it entered the realm of propaganda. Propaganda can never rise to the level of art. It targets those lacking any clear cut principles …and leaves them sleepless.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Friday, March 18, 2011
America Is No Longer A Player
Apparently it takes two years to get the measure of a man. Equally apparent is that it takes some Americans even longer.
Last night’s show is one to be bookmarked. It dealt primarily with the foreign policy failures of the Obama administration, especially as pertains to the Middle East. On the eve of the president’s trip to Brazil, we can now look forward to a fresh set of policy embarrassments looming in South America. This is one of the reasons Hillary Clinton continues to distance herself from this administration.
Everything about the discussions last night was pretty much on target. And it is not something that will ever be reported in the NYT and in other liberal mainstream media outlets. Obama is their baby, after all. A mother will always stand up for her child.
But neither Batchelor or Hoenlein (or any of their guests) ever got down to actually pulling the trigger. Triangulation no longer works. Only facts are relevant. By parting ways with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel among others, the U.S. has planted itself firmly in Iran’s twelver camp. This did not just happen because of inattention, ignorance, or character flaws. It is deliberate. Anyone might be relieved to see our president as dupe and bumbler-in chief. It might even be so. In any case, Obama has been the public face of events that have occurred since he has been in office. It is he who must be held to account. No doubt, others much smarter than Obama are pulling his strings.
On the home front it’s the same story. Obama’s presidency has been a disaster anywhere you look.
One hopeful sign (if you can call it that): I see China inching closer to the breach. As I have predicted previously, Israel will survive. Iran will not. Half ‘evil’ will always win out over 100% ‘evil’. America is no longer a player.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Pretty Pink Ribbons
Conservative media is awash this morning - all asking the same question, “Where in the world is Barack Hussein Obama?” It’s as if they all received the same memo overnight; sent out by the Koch brothers, no doubt. And indeed, the question is quite valid. It seems that the Saudis have already decided that their partner in the West is and has been MIA for far too long; that it’s high time they begin taking things into their own hands. Israel is rapidly coming to the same conclusion. Turkey, Brazil and others have already fled; while still others are scrambling to find new, more reliable partners. Russia and China see untold new opportunities.
The only ones stuck in the pretense of American leadership is us. Our hands appear to be tied by convention. It’s not that we’re not aware. In fact, it becomes clearer by the day; that we’ve have jettisoned our rudder, our engines and our sails; that we are now drifting and (perhaps) worse: being blown about aimlessly by outside currents and upheaval. And that’s the best case scenario (not yet time to throw the horses overboard). The worst being, that it’s deliberate and done from the inside with a brick on the gas pedal.
This now should become critical to our calculations. If our leadership is indeed just taking a hands-off approach, then we might just eke out another year and a half. Even a clock left unwound is right at least twice a day. If, on the other hand, it’s being done deliberately, then all bets are off. We’re practically guaranteed never to catch a break. By 2012, we’ll have fallen so far; it’ll be moot to even have elections.
While there are now a few new faces in Congress who are raising concerns; at the same time, they’re already throwing up their hands. They find the institution has been eviscerated and reduced to the level of straw man. Our Republican leadership seems quite content to assume this role and appears eager to stand by and watch. The strategy, as far as I can make out, appears to center on handing the administration enough rope.
It won’t work. By the time 2012 rolls around, there just might not be much of anything left to tie up in pretty pink ribbons.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
'Check Engine' Light
For the first time I see U.S. oil dependence as a real existential threat. The perfect storm is raging while we are agonizing over Charlie Sheen. Oil prices alone will crush our economy. We can now appreciate the efforts of previous administrations designed to keep it all together. ‘Containment’ had become an intricate game that demanded increasingly complex solutions. Clearly, our present administration does not know how to play.
We went to war in Iraq in response to 9/11. It was not something we could avoid. Admittedly, we ran the risk of destabilizing the region. It did not destabilize. We actually were on the right track. The countries of the Middle East were reminded to mind their manners. They did - for a time. When it became clear that America was crumbling from within and that we would not be able to sustain the drive, they began to bolt. The election of Barack Hussein Obama confirmed to the world that we were finished.
Now, voters' remorse. We don’t even have it in us to criticize our president’s handling of the job. We’re just desperately hanging on till the next election cycle, watching as we circle the drain. Our fear that we won’t last that long is already palpable.
Russia and China will survive. It’s not that our past presidents were so much smarter or capable than Putin or Hu Jintao. But at the very least it was a more or less even match. Now, ‘the U.S. is out of the game’. We’ve left the stadium and taken our ball.
There is one attribute that elevates the leaders of China and Russia (and those of most other nations) to the status of players on the global gridiron: patriotism. Most leaders take pride in their countries. They may have different ways of expressing it; different approaches; different ideologies, etc. But, in almost every case, they do what they do to give their nations a chance to survive. Even Kim Yong-Il rattles his bones of a nation to fair advantage. There are only two notable exceptions: Iran and the U.S.
Iran is so locked into an eschatological vision, it pays no heed to possible consequences. This, while current U.S. leadership wildly pursues some utopian ideological throw-back to some unworkable drug-induced version of a coma. Both are so arrogant as to ignore any and all warning signals.
I’ve been driving for years with my ‘check engine’ light on. So far so good. I haven’t had problems. It’d be a bit different if I still had to ferry kids to and from soccer practice. Or, if I were running a country with over 300 million people in it.
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
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