View from India: ALL EYES ON GILANI’S VISIT TO CHINA

by B.RAMAN

All eyes in Pakistan are on the four-day visit to China from May 17, 2011, by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani. The dates of the visit were finalized some weeks ago to enable him to participate in the year-long observance of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. It has since acquired special significance in the eyes of Pakistani analysts as it is taking place at a time when Pakistan has come under severe criticism in the U.S. for failing to detect the presence of Osama bin Laden for over five years at Abbottabad, the cradle of the Pakistan Army, where the Pakistan Military Academy is located. OBL was killed by helicopter-borne U.S. naval commandos on May 2.

2.According to Chinese sources, the documents and computer records seized by the raiding party at OBL’s residence do not appear to have yielded any evidence so far to indicate that Osama was in touch with any of the Pakistani agencies. However, the examination of the records and computer documents is still on. In the meanwhile, the Pakistani political leadership, at the urging of the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has kept the focus more on the security failure which enabled the U.S. naval commandos to raid OBL’s place without being detected by the Pakistan Air Force and the Army than on the intelligence failure that enabled OBL to live at Abbottabad for over five years.

3. The anger over the clandestine U.S. raid has been widespread in Pakistan and has led to demands for a re-examination of Pakistan ’s relations with the U.S. and of the intelligence and counter-terrorism co-operation between the intelligence agencies of the two countries. A resolution passed during an in camera session of the two Houses of the Pakistan Parliament on May 13 has also reportedly threatened to stop the flow of logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan from the Karachi port if the U.S. continued with the Drone (pilotless plane) strikes in the two Waziristans and carried out any more unilateral raids by its commandos in other parts of Pakistan.

4. According to reliable Pakistani sources, Gilani is expected to raise with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao two issues which were not originally on the agenda---namely, the possibility of an increase in Chinese economic assistance to enable Pakistan to resist the U.S. pressure and Chinese military assistance for the strengthening of the air defences near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Even though Pakistan Air Force officials have attributed the non-detection of the intrusion of the U.S. choppers to the USA ’s superior stealth technology, there is also a feeling that the air defences on the Afghan border were not as good as they are on the Indian border and hence there is a need to strengthen them.

5. In the present estranged atmosphere, the U.S. is unlikely to help Pakistan in this regard. The Pakistani sources say that Gilani is expected to request the Chinese for urgent assistance in this connection. Pakistani expectations of an enhanced Chinese role to enable Pakistan to reduce its dependence on the U.S. have put the Chinese in an embarrassing position. Though they would like to oblige Pakistan to the extent possible, they would not like to do anything which could come in the way of the fresh initiatives under way for improving China ’s military-military relationship with the U.S.

6. After a gap of seven years, Gen. Chen Bingde, the Chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is on a week-long visit to the U.S. from May 15. The Chinese would not like any jarring note in the military-military relations with the U.S. during Gen. Chen’s visit due to any special gesture shown by them to Pakistan. The Chinese are also keen that the U.S. Drone strikes should continue since some of the strikes in the past were directed at the training camps of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) in the Waziristans, which were also training Uighur jihadis from the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang province of China .

7. Since the May 2 Abbottabad raid, the Chinese have maintained a high level of oral support for Pakistan on the counter-terrorism issue, highlighting the sacrifices allegedly made by the Pakistani security forces in the fight against jihadi terrorism. At the same time, they have avoided any dramatic gestures of a concrete nature such as increasing significantly their economic assistance to Pakistan or giving additional military assistance.

8. While they may give some concrete assistance of a limited nature during Gilani’s visit, they are likely to advise Pakistan to cool it and not to let its relations with the U.S. and its counter-terrorism co-operation with the U.S. reach a breaking point. (16-5-11)
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(Bahukutumbi Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)

Bits: Around the World in 80 Days

If Mexico started shelling us from across the border, how long would we do nothing more than to hide in our cellars? This is the reality Israel has been facing for some time now. It knows that the shelling is designed to provoke a greater war in the region – a war (barring a Biblical miracle) she would lose.

Israel has essentially zero friends. Even if she were to defend herself successfully, she would be condemned by virtually all nations. Should she lay herself down in front of the lions and beg for mercy, there might be a chance – but you know how lions are.

At the moment – even with Obama’s empty rhetoric – Kaddafi has more street creds than Israel could ever hope to have. Kaddafi’s crime was to stand up against AQ and the Iranian axis. We jumped on the scaffold too soon. The axe hadn’t been sharpened yet and we looked foolish just holding sticks in our hands.

Kaddafi will fall – they all do – but it will be on his terms. In 50 years, all the kids will be wearing t-shirts with Kaddafi’s picture on it.

Kaddafi had long ago agreed to support and be a key member of Soros’ Open Society. In that he was one up on us. (We joined up much later.) He knew how to work it. He knows where the bones are buried, even if he never intended to swallow all of it.
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Thaddeus gets it – up to a point. The reason it no longer matters if the president shows up for work or not; the reason it no longer matters if the parties tie themselves in knots over what essentially amount to non-issues; the reason our government has ceased to function in its service for the people of the United States is because our government is now elsewhere. It is elsewhere that the real decisions are now being made –while Washington remains a convenient diversion, a pointless, but seductive charade.

Look at the flourishes of the right hand and miss what the left hand is doing. If you really want to know what’s going on, look to Soros' Open Society, look to the UN, look to The Hague, look to NATO. Washington has long since surrendered its sword.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

WAR: Comic Relief

Everywhere I turn today on the radio dial, I hear the usual yuck-yucks and clucks about what Obama did today. The war in Libya is topic number one of course. Japan has fallen to a distant third behind the many marriages of Elizabeth Taylor. Actually, the past few days we’ve seen very little of Obama. It has been Hillary Clinton who’s been out front, trying to explain this and that.

What’s curious about this is that war isn’t at all funny. The yuck-yucks center on the administration’s failure to explain how we got into it and what we can expect. The details we’re given change by the hour and are often contradictory. For instance, Obama claims that it’ll last just a few more days with us in charge, and then we’ll hand it off to some unspecified 'other'. Then, we learn, that nobody else wants it. It’s like watching a group of kids playing hot potato. Or, the kitchen sink gets clogged and we go in with all kinds of ‘shock and awe’ (to borrow a phrase). We ask the kid next door to come over and help. All he brings with him is a screwdriver while we’ve got the 130 ft. snake out. Whom are we hoping to hand off to? It’s comical, in a macabre kind of way. But here we are. The Germans have already pulled out. NATO is hiding in the tall grass. The others were never in. ‘Allies in disarray’ is how Drudge put it.

We’ve seen this before: an administration getting pummeled for deciding to go to war. Whether Kaddafi lives or dies is almost beside the point. It almost seems like the U.S. president is always the ultimate target of our scorn and ridicule; that as soon as any U.S. leader orders military intervention, it’s like, at the same time, he’s holding a loaded gun to his own head.

You might get the impression from reading this blog that I dislike Obama. The truth is I really don’t dislike him at all. His exploits have taken us in many unforeseen (and foreseen) directions. It’s been a blessing to be alive during these times of tumultuous change. The Obamas (in one incarnation or another) have always been with us. We’ve just never put them in charge of anything before. This time we did. And what did we expect? We got exactly what we voted for.
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On today’s Glenn Beck radio program, the name Stephen Lerner surfaced in connection with a union plot to collapse the American economy. Later in the day, Limbaugh also spent a segment on it. This seems consistent with what happened before (just preceding the 2008 election). When the Justice Department was notified, they ignored what must surely constitute a serious threat. Say, the kid with the screwdriver (above) goes home and were to fantasize on Facebook about putting that screwdriver of his through Obama’s eye; he would no doubt get a visit from the Secret Service before sundown. Lerner, apparently is playing for the right team (unions). So, we can assume he can happily fly under the radar, as far as Big Sis is concerned.

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/

Toy Room

The U.S.-led NATO forces are not going to prevail. Not because they can’t. but because we don’t want them to. There’s s something else afoot. Pakistan is a failed state. Obviously it’s not a failed state to China. Ditto, North Korea.

There are any number of failed states being gathered up in South America, Africa, and in the Middle East. Assange can work both sides of the fence depending on which side you talk to. There’s even someone out there who finds terrorism useful, otherwise it would stop.

We’re being played. India, Israel and a whole slew of other nations don’t know it yet. They still believes the deck isn’t stacked. And this might surprise you: The culprits are not necessarily the culprits we are made to hate. This is simply a diversion. The culprits are inside our own American house.

America is the strongest, most opulent house on the block. Could there be any doubt that America is not in charge of its own affairs?

We’re told that America is in decline. The biggest house on the block never falls on hard times. But, at the same time, it remains free to make additions or alterations if the owners should so decide. The biggest house on the block determines its own changes. The change is toward totalitarianism. Things can be done either by doing or not doing. You don’t roll your mother-in-law off the cliff and into a lake, and then jump into the water and rescue her (though, on second thought, this ploy too has been tried before).

Suffice it to say that change is at hand. Our people already have an inkling of it. They are finding themselves increasingly marginalized. They feel they are being herded through a maze. They are made to argue amongst themselves as to what it all means. They’re not getting the straight story. The (stealth) narrative belongs to Obama, Pelosi, Soros, and Reid. WikiLeaks is only a part of the deception - so is Pakistan, North Korea, China, et al. The toy room is America.

Happy new year!!!

http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/