My expectation is that Brown will beat Coakley. The wild card is 'turnout', as Gigot says; but not in the sense in which he says it. A better term for it is 'fraud'. I dare say that election fraud has been a part of elections in America since JFK (and possibly even before). Fraud has always come primarily from the Democrat side. That is to say, when elections were close, Democrats always won.
Election fraud is difficult to measure or even identify because the media (that is 99% Democrat) never picks up on it. There is, however, a way to gage it by seeing how high any given population is taxed. This will give some indication just how gullible and tolerant of corruption any given population is. Massachusetts is in the top ten of highest tax states and we can therefore assume a high potential for fraud exists. Since this particular election has national implications as well, i. e. the oh so elusive 60th vote for health care, all the stops will be drawn out, both by Massachusetts Democrats and by Washington, to get the desired result.
A Republican win despite the heavy Democrat artillery would be significant indeed. It would point to a nation-wide groundswell of anti-government feeling beyond what the usual (slightly) right-of-center pundits (including Batchelor and Gigot) are willing to admit.
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